RBA November Hike Odds: Finimize Reports 40%, EconoTimes 50% as Banks Split

Here is what RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said about inflation this week, why November hike odds have jumped, where the big banks stand, and what a 25 basis point move on 3 November would mean for your mortgage.

The headline move: Finimize reports markets are pricing about a 40% chance the cash rate rises from 4.60% to 4.85% in November, up from roughly 30% earlier in the week. EconoTimes puts it at about 50%, citing Reuters. Those are outlet-reported figures, not verified market data.

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What Hauser actually said

Hauser spoke at Citi's Australia & New Zealand Investment Conference in Sydney on 21 October. The RBA transcript page could not be opened, so the quotes below come from the RBA page's indexed text, cross-checked against Dow Jones Newswires coverage.

On inflation: "The inflation outlook looks materially worse than we projected in the August report." On oil: "Oil was back over $100, no end in sight to the war." Finimize's account adds Brent crude around $108 a barrel, versus $102 at the RBA's last meeting and about a third above the August forecast.

On the hikes already delivered: "We were the first G20 central bank, as you know, to raise rates this year... we raised them three times in February, March, and May." On the forward stance: "The Board was unanimous in voting to raise rates, and it said importantly that it stood ready to do more if needed."

On the risk assessment: "In August, we did identify three upside inflation risks... By September, we judged that those three risks had crystallised." Dow Jones adds that liaison contacts call cost pressures firms' number one concern and that more firms see 3.0% to 3.5% inflation as the new norm. Then the market-mover: "Look, we're in a world of hard choices. I think that's the reality here." This piece follows our November 3 rate preview.

The repricing: from 9% to 40 to 50%

EconoTimes, citing Reuters, reports market-implied odds fell to about 9% after the September jobs figures, down from 32% beforehand. The weak labour market (39,300 jobs lost, unemployment 4.7%) made tightening look unlikely.

Hauser's remarks reversed that. Finimize says markets are pricing about a 40% chance of a November hike to 4.85%, up from roughly 30% earlier in the week. EconoTimes, later the same day, reported about 50%, citing Reuters. Caveat: neither outlet names its market-data source, and the ASX RBA Rate Tracker's data table could not be read on 21 October. Odds have roughly quintupled since the jobs-data low.

Finimize also reports inflation forecasts for next week: headline near 4.0% and core around 3.5%, still above the RBA's 2 to 3% target range. Those are Finimize's figures, not ABS or RBA numbers.

The banks are split

CBA: hold at 4.60% is the base case. CommBank still forecasts the RBA leaves rates unchanged in November. Chief Economist Luke Yeaman: "Our base case: the cycle wins, just." The same note warns the risks of further increases are building. CommBank expects September quarter trimmed mean inflation at 1.0% and a hold if that is broadly right.

NAB: hold is the base case, a hike is only a risk. NAB's September Forward View: "We expect the RBA will lift rates at the September meeting, taking the cash rate to 4.6%. There is risk of a follow-up rate hike in November." And: "We also see the risk that the RBA acts again in November, taking the cash rate to 4.85%." A November hold at 4.60% is the base case; a hike is only a risk or possibility.

ANZ: a 25bp November hike to 4.85% is the forecast. ANZ Research, 29 September: "We expect the RBA to raise the cash rate in September and November, taking it to 4.85%, its highest level since 2008." That wording is ANZ's own. The September hike was delivered as ANZ expected, so the November leg is the one in focus.

Westpac has no verified October leg and is not included: its October Market Outlook could not be found in Westpac's own publications.

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How we got to 4.60%

Four 25bp hikes in 2026 took the cash rate from 3.60% to 4.60%: 3 February to 3.85%; 17 March to 4.10% (derived figure); 5 May to 4.35%, decided 8 to 1; 29 September to 4.60%, unanimous. The 4.60% is the highest the target has stood since November 2011, a derived comparison. A move to 4.85% would be the highest since 2008, in ANZ's wording.

The gateway: CPI on 28 October

The ABS releases the September quarter CPI on Wednesday 28 October at 11:30am AEDT. A hot print would back Hauser's warning and the market's repricing; a clearly cooling print would firm up the hold calls and could unwind it. The decision follows on Tuesday 3 November, with the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy at 2:30pm AEDT. 3 November is Melbourne Cup Day, a public holiday in Victoria, but the decision proceeds as scheduled. Our November rate decision preview has the full CPI checklist and what to watch on the day.

What this means for your mortgage

Hold at 4.60% means repayments stay where they are, with the September hike still flowing through. That is already biting: mortgage demand fell sharply in September, a sign higher rates are squeezing buyers. Nothing in the verified record supports a cut scenario: the Deputy Governor says the inflation outlook is materially worse, the Board stands ready to do more, CBA sees a hold with upside risk, and ANZ forecasts a hike.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the odds of a November hike?

About 40%, per Finimize's reporting on 21 October, up from roughly 30% earlier in the week. EconoTimes, later the same day, put it at about 50%, citing Reuters. Both are outlet-reported, not verified market data. After the jobs figures, odds had been about 9%, per EconoTimes citing Reuters.

What did Hauser say?

At the Citi conference on 21 October he said "The inflation outlook looks materially worse than we projected in the August report," and confirmed the Board "stood ready to do more if needed" after September's unanimous hike.

Where do the banks stand?

CBA's published base case is a November hold at 4.60%, with hike risks building. NAB's base case is also a hold, with a hike framed only as a risk. ANZ forecasts a 25bp November hike to 4.85%. Westpac's call could not be verified from its own publications and is not included.

Why does the 28 October CPI matter?

It is the last major inflation reading before the 3 November decision. A hot print backs the hike case; a cool one firms up the hold calls and could unwind the repricing.

This article summarises the RBA's statements, Hauser's 21 October conference remarks, the banks' economics publications, and market reporting from Finimize and EconoTimes as of 21 October 2026. Data can change the outlook; nothing here is financial advice.