RBA November 3 Rate Watch: 39,300 Jobs Lost, but Inflation Still Calls the Shots

The September jobs report showed 39,300 jobs gone and unemployment up to 4.7%. Normally that would cool talk of rate hikes. This time it has not. The minutes from the Reserve Bank's September meeting show a board far more worried about inflation, and the country's biggest lender says the jobs shock actually supports a hold on 3 November, not a cut. The next datapoint that matters is the September quarter CPI on 28 October, and after that the November meeting is genuinely live.

This is a standalone update to our earlier preview of the November rate decision.

The jobs shock, in the numbers

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the September labour force figures on Thursday 15 October, and they were weak across the board:

Employment fell 39,300 (0.3%) to 14,782,700, seasonally adjusted.
The unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 4.7%, with 732,000 people out of work.
The composition was lopsided: full-time employment rose 34,400, while part-time employment fell 73,700. The jobs being lost are part-time jobs.
The participation rate fell 0.2 points to 66.8%.
The underemployment rate ticked up 0.1 points to 6.3%, and the underutilisation rate stood at 11.0%.

One wrinkle keeps this from being a straightforward story of a weakening economy. Monthly hours worked actually rose by 1.3 million to 2,011 million, which means those still employed are working more. That detail matters for the RBA, because it softens the signal that demand is collapsing.

Suburban Australian brick home at dusk with warm lights on

What the minutes actually say

The minutes of the RBA's 28 to 29 September meeting were released on Tuesday 13 October, and they explain why jobs data alone will not decide November.

The Board voted unanimously to raise the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.60%, but only after briefly considering leaving it unchanged. That detail is important: a hold was on the table, and the Board consciously moved past it.

What pushed them was the materialisation of the upside risks to inflation identified back in August. The Middle East conflict had broadened, oil prices were well above what the August forecasts assumed, global cost pressures were intensifying with AI-related demand cited specifically, and domestic capacity pressures looked greater than previously assessed. The Board's own summary line was that these developments pointed to "an increase in the risk of persistently elevated inflation."

The forward guidance was explicit. The Board said it would do what was necessary to deliver price stability and full employment, "including increasing the cash rate target further if required." That sentence is the reason 3 November is a live meeting rather than a formality.

CBA is holding its hold call

CommBank's economics team published its take on the jobs data on 15 October, the same day the ABS numbers landed. Senior Economist Ashwin Clarke said the data "lends support to CBA's expectation that interest rates will be on hold in November."

That is a deliberate framing. CBA is reading the same jobs shock everyone else is, and it is using it as evidence for a hold, not as a reason to expect cuts. The bank's note also warns that the risks remain tilted to the upside and that another hike is plausible. Clarke's team notes the RBA has now raised rates four times and is weighing whether that will be enough.

That is the tension defining the run-up to 3 November. The labour market is softening, which normally argues against tightening. But the RBA's published reasoning says inflation persistence is the bigger risk, and Australia's largest bank agrees the balance still favours holding, with hike risk still on the table.

The gateway event: Q3 CPI on 28 October

Everything above is context for one number. The ABS releases the Consumer Price Index for the September 2026 quarter on Wednesday 28 October at 11:30am AEDT, and it is the gateway data point for the November decision.

If the quarterly CPI shows inflation still running hot or broadening beyond the energy shock that prompted the September hike, the Board has the cover the minutes gave it. If it shows inflation clearly rolling over, the jobs data gains weight and the hold call firms up.

The November decision follows on Tuesday 3 November, with the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy released at 2:30pm AEDT the same day. One quirk worth knowing: 3 November is Melbourne Cup Day, a public holiday in Victoria, but the decision and the SMP go ahead as scheduled.

What a live 3 November means for mortgage holders

When the minutes explicitly keep further tightening on the table, borrowers should think in scenarios rather than in certainties. There are two realistic ones.

Scenario one: the Board holds at 4.60%. Repayments stay where they are: the September hike has had weeks to flow through to variable rates, so a hold simply extends the current cost. For borrowers, the practical move under this scenario is the boring one: use the breathing room to get ahead on repayments if possible, because the minutes show the Board is not ruling out later moves, including at the December meeting, the last of the year.

Scenario two: another 25 basis points. Lenders typically pass RBA moves through in full within a few weeks. On a variable-rate mortgage, a quarter-point rise adds roughly the same amount it added in September. As a purely illustrative example of the arithmetic (not a quote and not a forecast): on a $600,000 loan, a 0.25 percentage point move shifts the monthly repayment by about $100 in either direction. The real figure for any household depends on its loan size, remaining term, and rate, and lender timing varies.

Notice what is missing: a cut scenario. Nothing in the verified record supports one. The minutes point to upside inflation risk, CBA's published view is hold with upside risk, and the four hikes already delivered are still, in CBA's words, being weighed for whether they will be enough. A weak jobs print has historically been the thing that stays the RBA's hand; the minutes suggest that this time the bar for pausing is inflation data, not employment data. That is exactly why 28 October matters more than 15 October did.

Hands reviewing a printed household budget with a pen, calculator and coffee on the desk

For context on how tighter policy is already flowing through the housing market, see Australian mortgage demand's September collapse, which tracks what rising rates are doing to borrowing activity.

Dates that decide it

Wednesday 28 October, 11:30am AEDT: Q3 CPI from the ABS, the gateway data point.
Tuesday 3 November, 2:30pm AEDT: RBA decision plus the Statement on Monetary Policy.
December meeting: the final board meeting of 2026, the last chance for a move this year.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current RBA cash rate?

4.60%, set on 29 September 2026 in a unanimous 25 basis point hike. It is the fourth increase of 2026.

When is the next RBA interest rate decision?

Tuesday 3 November 2026, announced alongside the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy at 2:30pm AEDT. 3 November is Melbourne Cup Day, a public holiday in Victoria, but the decision proceeds as scheduled.

What did the September jobs report show?

The ABS reported on 15 October that employment fell 39,300 to 14,782,700, the unemployment rate rose to 4.7%, and the participation rate slipped to 66.8%. Full-time employment rose 34,400 while part-time employment fell 73,700, so the losses were concentrated in part-time work.

Why does weak jobs data not mean rates will fall?

Because the RBA's September minutes frame persistently elevated inflation as the larger risk, and say the Board will do what is necessary "including increasing the cash rate target further if required." CBA's published view matches: the jobs data supports a November hold, but the risks stay tilted to the upside and another hike is plausible.

When is the Q3 CPI released and why does it matter?

Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 11:30am AEDT. It is the last major inflation reading before the 3 November decision, so it is the data point most likely to settle whether the Board holds or hikes.

What would another 25bp hike do to my mortgage?

Lenders typically pass RBA moves through in full within weeks. As a purely illustrative example, on a $600,000 loan a quarter-point move changes the monthly repayment by roughly $100. Your actual figure depends on your loan size, term, and rate. This is illustrative arithmetic, not advice.

This article summarises the ABS September labour force release, the RBA September minutes, and CBA's published economics note as of 19 October 2026. Data can change the outlook; nothing here is financial advice.