US Rents Are Bouncing Back, but Record Concessions Mean Renters Still Hold the Upper Hand
The US rental market is sending two messages at once. Rents are climbing back from their spring lows, with year-over-year growth improving for five straight months and 2026 on track for positive full-year rent growth. At the same time, landlords are handing out more concessions than ever: 43.5% of listings across the 50 largest metros offered a concession in August, a record high, and vacant units are sitting longer than in any September since tracking began in 2019. The rebound is real, but so is the renter's advantage. This is the market to negotiate in.
The rebound: five straight months of improving rent growth
The national picture from Apartment List's October 2026 report shows a market finding its floor. Median rent stood at $1,388 in September 2026, down 0.1% for the month and 0.4% year over year. That 0.4% annual decline is the important number, because the trajectory behind it has been improving every month since April, when year-over-year growth bottomed out at negative 1.6%, matching a record low. Five straight months of improvement, and rents are nearly back to flat.
At an October 7 webinar, Apartment List described 2026 as on track for positive full-year rent growth. Treat that as an outlook, not a result: it depends on how rents behave through December. But the direction is clear enough that 33 of the 55 largest metros were seeing rents increase year over year in September, even as rents fell month over month in 39 of them. The recovery is broadening, not just a coastal story.
The recovery has supply dynamics working in its favor. The wave of new apartments that crushed rent growth is cresting: 2024 delivered over 600,000 new multifamily units, the most in a single year since 1986, and about 667,000 apartments remained under construction as of the fall. The multifamily vacancy rate eased to 7.0% in September, down from a peak of 7.3% in February. Demand is absorbing supply, slowly, and that is what the improving rent numbers are reflecting.
The catch: vacancies, slow leasing, and record concessions
Here is the other half of the story. Even with rents recovering, landlords are struggling to fill units. The median vacant unit took 34 days to lease in September, the longest list-to-lease time in any September since tracking began in 2019. Only 47% of Apartment List renters searched with high urgency in September, and the rebound in search urgency has stalled out. Renters are looking, but they are not rushing.
That softness is exactly why concessions are everywhere. Realtor.com's August 2026 report found 43.5% of studio, one- and two-bedroom listings across the 50 largest metros offered a concession, up from 40.4% a year earlier and a new record. Concession rates rose year over year in 39 of the 50 metros. Apartment List, which introduced a new concessions indicator tracking the share of properties offering at least one month of free rent, says concession rates remain elevated nationally, especially in Sun Belt markets.
One nuance matters here: Apartment List's rent-growth figures are based on listed rents and exclude concessions. That means the headline 0.4% annual decline understates how soft effective rents really are in concession-heavy markets. When nearly half of listings come with a sweetener, the rent people actually pay is running below the rent landlords advertise. The rebound in the data and the deals in the listings are both true.
Where rents are falling and where they're surging
The national averages hide two very different rental markets. In the Sun Belt, oversupply is still dragging rents down. San Antonio led the declines with rents down 5.1% year over year in September, the largest drop among the 55 largest metros, followed by Las Vegas, Denver, Phoenix, and Austin. Denver fell 3.4%, while Phoenix and Austin each fell 2.9%. San Antonio's 5.1% decline was also the steepest among metros with more than one million residents in Apartment List's August index, where its median rent was $1,148.
At the other end, the Bay Area is surging. San Francisco metro rents were up 11.0% year over year in September, the fastest growth of any large metro, with San Jose up 7.9%, the second fastest. Virginia Beach, Milwaukee, and Chicago rounded out the largest September gains. Realtor.com's August data told the same story from its own sample: San Francisco up 4.5% and San Jose up 4.7% year over year, the two markets where concession rates declined most sharply, which the report links to stronger rental demand alongside AI-driven housing trends identified in realtor.com research.
The concession map mirrors the rent map, inverted. The highest concession rates in August were in Denver (71.9% of listings), Austin (70.7%), Las Vegas (69.6%), Nashville (69.0%), and San Antonio (67.9%), with 18 metros at 50% or more. Concession rates rose fastest year over year in Houston, Cincinnati, and New Orleans. Where rents are falling, landlords are bidding for tenants. Tampa's concession rate runs above the national rate, while San Francisco's runs well below it.
Why Apartment List says down 0.4% and realtor.com says down 0.9%
You may have seen both numbers and wondered which is right. Both are. They measure different things over different months.
Apartment List estimates the median rent across all rental properties in a market using a same-unit, repeat-transaction model that controls for changes in what kinds of units are listed. It reflects transacted prices for rented units, not list prices for vacant ones, and covers all bedroom sizes. Its 0.4% figure is September 2026 data, published October 12.
Realtor.com tracks the median asking rent of studio, one- and two-bedroom units advertised on its site across the 50 largest metro areas, including apartments and private rentals like condos and single-family homes. It is an asking-rent measure from active listings, not signed leases. Its 0.9% figure is August 2026 data, published September 17, and it remains the latest realtor.com monthly rent report available as of this writing.
Different samples, different methods, different months. Both point the same direction: rents are still down year over year, but the decline is narrow, and concessions are filling the gap between asking rents and what tenants actually pay. For context, realtor.com's $1,699 national median asking rent sits 3.7% below the summer 2022 peak but 15.4% above August 2019 levels. By unit size: studios at $1,436 (down 1.2%, the 36th straight month of decline), one-bedrooms at $1,586 (down 0.8%, 39th month), and two-bedrooms at $1,896 (down 0.9%, 39th month).
How to negotiate your lease in this market
A market where units sit 34 days and a record share of listings carry concessions is a market where the asking rent is the starting point, not the price. These tactics are grounded in what the data actually shows:
Ask for a month free, or the equivalent. Free rent is the concession landlords reach for most visibly: 30.6% of listings across the 50 largest metros offered a period of free rent in August. If the listing does not advertise it, ask anyway. The odds are best in the Sun Belt metros where concession rates top 60% and 70%.
Ask about reduced fees and amenity upgrades, too. An Avail survey of landlords facing high vacancy and weak demand found that among those who offered or considered concessions, 37.9% chose reduced or waived fees and 30.7% upgraded amenities, versus 25.0% who offered free rent. Parking, storage, pet fees, and amenity access are all negotiable.
Do not count on the security deposit being waived. The same survey found 65.7% of landlords said they would not waive the security deposit. Push for a reduced deposit or reduced fees instead of a full waiver.
Use the vacancy numbers as leverage at renewal. Among landlords dealing with high vacancy and weak demand, 33.3% offered concessions, 25.9% were considering them, and 24.1% lowered base rent outright instead. If your building has visible vacancies or your lease renewal arrives with an increase, come armed with competing listings and ask what they will do to keep you. A landlord facing a 34-day median lease time would rather keep a paying tenant.
Get every concession in writing. Verbal promises of free rent or reduced fees are worth nothing at renewal or in a dispute. Make sure concessions appear in the signed lease.
Time your search when you can. With month-over-month declines in 39 of 55 metros in September, the market still favors renters who shop around. Comparing multiple listings in the same neighborhood is the fastest way to find out who is competing hardest.
If you are weighing renting against buying more broadly, the math has shifted decisively toward renting this year. Our rent vs buy analysis breaks down the 2026 numbers city by city.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are US rents going up again?
Nearly. National rent was $1,388 in September 2026, down 0.4% year over year, but year-over-year growth has improved for five straight months after bottoming at negative 1.6% in April. A slight majority of the 55 largest metros (33) now show year-over-year rent increases. Apartment List says 2026 is on track for positive full-year rent growth, but that is an outlook dependent on rents through December, not a result.
What is the median rent in the US right now?
Apartment List puts the national median at $1,388 for September 2026. Realtor.com's median asking rent for studio, one- and two-bedroom units in the 50 largest metros was $1,699 in August 2026, down 0.9% year over year.
Why do Apartment List and realtor.com report different rent numbers?
Neither is wrong. Apartment List uses a same-unit, repeat-transaction model estimating transacted rents across all bedroom sizes (September 2026 data, published October 12). Realtor.com reports median asking rents from active listings for studio, one- and two-bedroom units in the 50 largest metros (August 2026 data, published September 17). Different samples, methods, and months produce different readings.
How common are rental concessions right now?
Very. A record 43.5% of studio, one- and two-bedroom listings across the 50 largest metros offered a concession in August 2026, up from 40.4% a year earlier. Free rent was offered on 30.6% of listings. Concessions are most common in Sun Belt markets: Denver (71.9%), Austin (70.7%), Las Vegas (69.6%), Nashville (69.0%), and San Antonio (67.9%).
Which US metros have the fastest falling and fastest rising rents?
San Antonio has the steepest decline at 5.1% year over year, followed by Las Vegas, Denver, Phoenix, and Austin. San Francisco has the fastest rent growth of any large metro at 11.0% year over year, with San Jose second at 7.9%.
How can I negotiate concessions on my lease or renewal?
Ask directly for a month free or reduced fees, since 30.6% of listings offer free rent and reduced fees are the most common landlord concession. Use competing listings and the long median lease time (34 days) as leverage, especially at renewal when landlords prefer keeping tenants. Get all concessions in writing in the lease. Do not expect the security deposit to be waived; most landlords refuse.
This article summarizes published housing data as of October 2026. Local markets vary; nothing here is financial advice.
