Redfin: US Median Sale Price Falls Year on Year for a Second Straight Week
The median price of homes sold in the United States has now fallen on an annual basis in two straight weekly readings. Redfin reports a median sale price of $389,601 for the four weeks ending 25 October 2026, down 0.1% year on year, following a prior week down 0.2% year on year. Together, these are the first annual declines in more than three years, after three straight years of increases.
That wording matters. A 0.1% move is small, and a median is not a price index for a fixed set of homes: it describes the middle of the homes that happened to sell in that window, so a shift in the mix sold can move it even when no individual home has changed in value. Redfin's weekly data cover more than 900 US metro areas and are subject to revision.
What the Redfin release actually shows
Do not confuse the sale price with the asking price. Redfin's seasonally adjusted median asking price was $400,703, up 1.2% year on year. The median asking price is still higher than a year ago, even as the middle sale price slipped.
Pending sales tell the demand side. On a seasonally adjusted basis, pending sales were 276,352, down 15.9% year on year and down 1.8% week on week, the lowest level in Redfin's records, which date back to 2021. They declined in all 50 of the most populous US metro areas for the third week in a row, so this is a broad slowdown. Our earlier coverage tells the same story from the contracts side (redfin-weekly-pending-sales-record-low-october-2026.html).
Supply is building slowly, not surging. Seasonally adjusted new listings were 352,421, down 4% year on year and down 0.6% week on week, the lowest level since January. Fewer owners are listing, yet active listings still reached 1,510,619 on a seasonally adjusted basis, up 2.2% year on year, with months of supply at 4.5, up from 4.
The monthly payment is doing the damage
Affordability, not a price collapse, is holding buyers back. Redfin puts the seasonally adjusted median monthly mortgage payment at $2,786 at a 7.32% mortgage rate, up 10.7% year on year, the highest level in its record except the prior week. The typical buyer pays substantially more each month than a year ago, even though the median sale price barely moved.
That combination is awkward for both sides: prices have not collapsed, yet monthly payments have jumped, so buyers feel stretched at roughly flat prices and contracts fall. Sellers are responding by cutting prices: Redfin reports that 21.5% of listings had a price drop, up from 20.9%, which is Redfin's own measure, not any other provider's price cut figure.
Why NAR still shows prices rising
The National Association of Realtors reported a very different headline for September: a median existing-home price of $417,500 in September 2026, up 1.3% from $412,300 one year earlier, marking the 39th consecutive month of year on year price gains, with an existing-home sales pace of 3.99 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate.
These results are not a contradiction, because Redfin and NAR measure different things over different periods. Redfin reports a rolling four-week window ending 25 October 2026, including late October trading. NAR reports the whole calendar month of September 2026. Their universes differ too: Redfin covers homes listed and sold in more than 900 metro areas, while NAR covers closed transactions of existing homes reported through Multiple Listing Services. NAR itself warns that the only valid median price comparisons are with the same period a year earlier, because buying patterns are seasonal.
The wider September picture is mixed, not uniformly down
Other September providers confirm that mixed picture. The Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported a median sales price for new houses sold of $400,400 in September 2026, down 3.9% year on year as a reported estimate inside its confidence interval, so it must not be presented as a statistically proven price fall. The same release reported a new-home sales pace of 676,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, also a reported estimate inside its confidence interval, with supply of 8.4 months (us-new-home-sales-september-2026.html).
Cotality, which tracks single-family prices through a repeat-sales index rather than a median of homes sold, reported September 2026 single-family prices up 1.7% year on year and down 0.3% from August, with the national median above $400,000 and no exact national median figure given. Looking ahead, Cotality forecasts annual growth slowing to 0.9% in September 2027. That is a forecast for September 2027, not an observed result for September 2026.
Realtor.com adds the listings side. Its summary table reports active listings of 1,161,615 in September, up 5.4% year on year, and a median listing price of $419,250, down 1.4% year on year. A listing price is an asking price, not a closed sale price, so it is not directly comparable with Redfin's sale price or NAR's closed transaction price. Realtor.com also reports that 20.8% of listings had a price cut in September, its own measure, distinct from Redfin's 21.5% share, and the two must never be mixed.
Put together, September is genuinely mixed, and one Redfin weekly reading, down 0.1%, cannot by itself support a general claim that US home values have fallen.
What this means for buyers and sellers
For buyers, the takeaway is negotiating room, not a bargain bonanza. Contracts are scarce and price adjustments are rising on both providers' measures, but the payment itself is the constraint: a flat sale price helps little when the monthly cost is up 10.7% year on year.
For sellers, the lesson is to price for the market that exists now. The median asking price is still rising year on year on Redfin's measure, while the median sale price has slipped, and that gap is where deals stall. Pricing competitively from day one beats listing high and cutting later.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did US home prices fall for the first time in three years?
Redfin reports annual declines in two straight weekly readings, the first such declines in more than three years. The four weeks ending 25 October 2026 showed a median sale price of $389,601, down 0.1% year on year, following a prior week down 0.2% year on year. It is the pair of declines that breaks the run, not one week alone.
Why does NAR show prices rising when Redfin shows a fall?
They measure different periods and different things. Redfin covers a four-week window ending 25 October 2026 for homes listed and sold in more than 900 metro areas. NAR covers closed existing-home transactions for September 2026, reporting a median price of $417,500, up 1.3% year on year, its 39th straight month of annual gains. Opposite directions in different windows are not a contradiction.
Did new-home prices fall in September?
Census and HUD reported a median new-home sales price of $400,400 for September 2026, down 3.9% year on year as a reported estimate inside its confidence interval, so it is not a statistically proven fall. The reported new-home sales pace was 676,000, with supply of 8.4 months.
What is Cotality forecasting?
Cotality forecasts annual home price growth slowing to 0.9% in September 2027, a forecast for a future date, not a result for September 2026. For September 2026 itself, Cotality reported single-family prices up 1.7% year on year and down 0.3% month on month, with the national median above $400,000 and no exact median figure given.
Are sellers cutting prices more often?
Yes, on both providers' separate measures. Redfin reports 21.5% of listings with a price drop, up from 20.9%. Realtor.com reports 20.8% of listings with a price cut in September. The measures must not be interchanged, but both point the same way.
What should buyers watch next?
Watch whether the annual declines persist beyond two weekly readings, and whether pending sales recover from their record low in Redfin's series. A run of declines would be a stronger sign the market has turned. Until then, treat this as a cooling signal, not a verdict on home values.
Sources: Redfin, 29 October 2026; National Association of Realtors, 13 October 2026; US Census Bureau and HUD, New Residential Sales, September 2026; Cotality, 3 November 2026; Realtor.com, September 2026 data. All figures were checked against the issuing organisations' own pages on 4 November 2026.
